Premature Celebration.

Republicans and Conservatives have for the past several months been gloating that they are poised to take back Congress in the 2010 midterm elections. With the media portraying tea parties, angry town halls and and massive "grassroots" movement brewing by the GOP, it's no wonder why the average Fox News viewer would believe this.

But the numbers just don't add up.

First of all, a few facts for you:

- The Democrats currently control the House by a 79 seat margain (Minus 2 current vacancies) and Republicans would have to gain 40 seats to once again control the House.
- With the Democrats up 60-40 in the Senate, the Republicans would have to win 11 seats to once again control the Senate.

History does not seem to appear on their side. Only a handful of times has a lead so large been surmounted by the minority party. In 1994, the Republicans gained 54 seats in the House. So what would stop the Republicans from doing it again? Besides lacking the leadership and direction they had in 1994 with Newt Gingrich, the polls show the Republican party approval rating is at the bottom of the barrel.

In a recent poll by ABC/WaPo, only 20% of adults identify themselves as Republican (A 26 year low), and only 19% express confidence in Republicans to make the right decisions.

Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans in Congress to do so. Even among Republicans, only 40 percent express confidence in the GOP congressional leadership to make good choices.

Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.

The wide gap in partisan leanings and the lack of confidence in the GOP carries into early assessments of the November 2010 midterm elections: Fifty-one percent say they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican. Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent for the Republican.

Of course though, ABC/WaPo is liberal commie smut. So lets look at another poll. Research 2000 says below:

Since January 8, Dems have gone from +8 net favorability to -10 -- an 18-point drop. Republicans have gone from -28 to -46 -- an 18 point drop.

And really, I'd rather be the party at -10 than the one at -46. Wouldn't you?


While it's true, Obama's numbers are down along with the Democrats, the Republican numbers are catastrophic anywhere but the south.


This is a base election and the Republicans seem to be more energized, but it is just not translating into numbers. The House and members of the Senate fought hard this summer and did not back down from the lies and smear campaigns that were conducted by the right. The Tea Bagging movement is appearing to lose steam and the media is already wearing thin with the Republicans appearing to offer no solutions and merely conduct themselves as a "Party of No".

Throwing all these factors on top of the fact that the Republicans trail on virtually every issues on every credible poll (Even with the South boosting their numbers), the idea that the Republicans are taking back Congress seems to be a myth.

The party remains a regional stump party with no new ideas that is doing nothing but pandering to their far right extremist base.